EIA slashes US, global oil demand forecasts for 2025

U.S. and global oil demand growth will be smaller next year than prior forecasts, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

The agency expects U.S. oil demand to rise to 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, down from its previous forecast of 20.6 million bpd. U.S. demand forecast for 2024 was unchanged at 20.3 million bpd, according to the EIA report.

World oil demand is expected to grow to 104.3 million bpd next year, about 300,000 bpd below prior forecasts, EIA said. It expects demand to be about 103.1 million bpd this year, a 20,000 bpd reduction on prior forecasts.

Reductions to this year's outlook reflect declining oil imports and refinery runs in China, the top buyer of crude oil in international markets, the EIA said. Cuts to next year's forecasts are due to concerns of weakening industrial production and manufacturing growth in the U.S. and Canada, the agency said.

U.S. oil production is also expected to grow to smaller records both this year and next year, EIA said. Currently the top oil producer in the world, the U.S. is expected to pump 13.22 million bpd this year, down from a prior forecast of 12.25 million bpd, the EIA said.

U.S. oil output in 2025 is now expected average 13.54 million, down about 1% from the prior forecast of 13.67 million bpd, the EIA said.